The Future Engaging Complexity and Policy: Afghanistan Citizen Allegiance Model
Liz Johnson,? Mirsad Hadzikadic, Joseph Whitmeyer

Abstract
With the world becoming more interconnected, interdependent, and complex, research needs to take into account the dynamism of interacting systems. Whereby traditional research methodologies have allowed for significant epistemological advances in policy studies, there remain opportunities to augment methodologies to account for emergence, rare events, tipping points, patterns, and processes found in complexity science. This research provides rationale, background, and policymaking considerations applying complexity science to policy studies research. To this end, we employ an agent-based model simulation of citizen alliance for the population of Afghanistan to demonstrate real-world application in policy studies. The flexibility of the model and its ability to change parameters demonstrate outcomes of varying policy scenarios. Additionally, the model tests the influence of Afghanistan news reports of insurgents attempting to gain influence by co-opting established leadership.

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